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| 0507 PD: PD Market Reports |
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| Archives - Past Articles | |||
| Wednesday, 09 May 2007 09:36 | |||
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Editor’s note: The following are available market reports and futures data as of April 20, 2007. Butter The CME cash butter price has held steady or increased during recent weeks. The current price of $1.3900 is the highest cash price since cash trading went to daily trading on January 9, 2006. The current cash price is $.2300 higher than last year at this time but $.0800 lower than this time in 2005. Churning activity across the country remains seasonally strong. Cream supplies are sufficient to maintain steady production schedules at plants. Some butter producers indicate they are hesitant to take full advantage of the available cream offerings due to asking prices higher than they are willing to pay at this time. Most feel cream volumes will be available to them during the upcoming spring milk flush season to warrant bypassing some offerings at this time. Cheese Cheese prices are firm. A number of buyers are trying to build cushion inventory for later-year needs and ahead of additional price increases. Current cheddar supplies are about in balance with orders. Mozzarella interest remains fairly steady and spot supplies limited. NDM price and availability concerns continue to impact mozzarella and other reduced fat cheese production both now and later in the year. Cheese production is generally steady to higher. The Kansas City Commodity Office (KCCO) awarded a contract under MCD4-031 for an additional 201,600 pounds of LMPS mozzarella for delivery May 16 to June 30, 2007. KCCO is soliciting offers to sell to CCC 158,400 to 633,600 pounds of Kosher process cheese for delivery June 2007 to June 2008. Offers are due April 26. Fluid milk Milk production patterns across the country continue to build toward seasonal high levels. Southern states from Florida to California are at or very near peak levels. Further north, milk production continues to build on a steady pace. In California, milk output remains at high levels and processors are being challenged to place all the milk. Total volumes are moving higher and are several percentage points above last year. Some unseasonable weather patterns occurred in some northern regions, but they had limited negative impact on milk receipts and logistics. Class I demand is stronger this week as bottlers once again refill bottling pipelines. Most schools are now back in session following spring break which has been occurring at various times over the past three to four weeks. Cream prices are trending steady with the CME butter price and cream multiples mostly unchanged. Some cream traders indicated cream supplies were more available this week and, in instances, harder to clear. Some butter operations are being selective in procuring surplus cream offerings. Most butter producers feel cream supplies will remain competitive with Class II needs, but they should remain plentiful to them during the upcoming flush milk production season at hopefully favorable prices. Dry products Nonfat dry milk markets remain firm as prices continue to generally increase. Outside of the Southwestern part of the country, production is lighter than anticipated for this time of the year. Current production remains the strongest in the Southwest with California being the biggest source. Domestic interest is still active and clearing available supplies. Export demand is good and unfilled. Buttermilk powder markets are firm as prices continue to increase. Most manufacturers report inventories are light and held with confidence. Drying schedules are moderate with the limiting factor being available time as processors attempt to balance milk supplies. Whey powder prices are lower in the central region while steady to firm elsewhere. Production is trending fairly steady at most locations, although no stock building at the producer level is being reported out of the Western region. Some new export sales out of the West are also attributing to firm prices in that area. May federal order advance price highlights (dairy programs) Under the federal milk order pricing system, the base price for Class I milk for May 2007 is $15.92, up $0.92 from last month and $4.95 higher than a year ago. This price is derived from the advanced Class III skim milk pricing factor of $11.28 and the advanced butterfat pricing factor of $1.4389 per pound. Dairy outlook (ERS) A slight year-over-year increase in output per cow is expected to increase milk production in 2007 by 1.1 percent over 2006 to 183.8 billion pounds. Because of higher feed costs and weaker milk prices in 2006, the robust increases in production of the last two years have slowed to a crawl. Although corn prices have slipped in recent weeks, they are still well above $3.00 a bushel. High grain prices, combined with high alfalfa prices and shortages, have countered higher prices for milk and will likely keep the milk-feed price ratio near 2.5 for the current year, near the 2006 level. A modest decline in cow numbers is expected to continue for the balance of 2007. Cheese and butter prices are both expected to climb over the course of 2007. Cheese prices are projected to average $1.3500 to $1.4000 per pound. The average butter price is expected to range between $1.2550 and $1.3350 for the year. The rising prices are primarily a result of the tightening supply situation. March milk production (NASS) Milk production in the 23 major states during March totaled 14.8 billion pounds, up 1.1 percent from March 2006. Production per cow averaged 1,782 pounds for March, 7 pounds above March of last year. The number of milk cows on farms were 8.28 million head, 58,000 head more than last March and 5,000 head more than February 2007. March federal milk order price and pool (dairy programs) During March, about 9.9 billion pounds of milk were received from producers. This volume of milk is 9.1 percent lower than the March 2006 volume. In March 2007, there was a significant volume of milk not pooled due to intraorder disadvantageous price relationships. About 4.0 billion pounds of producer milk were used in Class I products, unchanged from the previous year. Calendar composition likely had a positive impact on milk used in Class I in 2007 as compared to 2006 while the timing of the Easter season likely had no impact. The all-market average class utilization percentages were: Class I = 40 percent, Class II = 15 percent, Class III = 35 percent and Class IV = 10 percent. The weighted average statistical uniform price was $15.61, $0.91 higher than last month and $2.94 higher than last year. PD
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