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| 0707 PD: Market Reports |
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| Archives - Past Articles | |||
| Friday, 06 July 2007 05:52 | |||
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Editor’s note: The following are available market reports and futures data as of June 15, 2007. Butter Churning activity is lower than recent weeks. Output remains sufficient to generally fill current butter needs, although CME weekly butter inventories declined. Butter demand is seasonally fair at best. Retail orders are steady at fair level with promotional activity lighter than usual for this time of the season. Food service orders are seasonally steady and are following trends of previous years. Cheese Current supplies of cheddar and natural American are tight. Some buyers are searching for additional volumes. Mozzarella interest is showing signs of the traditional early summer demand slowdown because of current “high” price levels, elevated temperatures and the closing of schools for the summer. Some aging programs have been raided early as medium to aged cheddar can be a bargain compared to current product. Placing cheese priced above $2.00 per pound into a long hold (aging) program is a significant financial challenge and concern for cost recovery. Cheese production is generally steady to lighter. Class IV operations continue to be a more than traditional competitor for milk volumes. Fluid milk Milk handlers indicate milk production trends across the country will soon be impacted by summer heat and humidity levels, but no significant decreases have yet to be reported. In some areas, milk output is holding steady at high levels with most areas realizing declines from the seasonal peak. Class I sales are mixed. School milk needs are greatly reduced as schools have now recessed for the summer. Some bottled milk sales are still clearing to year-round school systems with retail demand fair. Milk volumes beyond Class I needs are easily placed as most manufacturing plants are willing to take advantage of the offerings. Condensed skim demand is strong, though less is available due to steady Class I sales and overall lighter milk volumes. Cream markets are mixed, especially when based on diverging basing points. Class II demand has increased greatly across the country as ice cream production is seasonally strong. Surplus cream offerings to the churn have tightened when compared to recent weeks, but most butter producers are comfortable with offerings to keep their operations running at fairly steady levels. Some butter producers indicate they may soon be micro-fixing butter to meet customer needs. Dry products Nonfat dry milk markets are generally steady, although prices are adjusting slightly higher and lower across the country. Powder production is dependent on local milk production volumes. Some plants are realizing lighter milk volumes headed to the dryer, thus dryer time is geared toward high heat powder output. Stocks of powder vary. Some producers are discounting prices to keep volumes moving, while other are generating as much as possible to catch up with orders and re-establish an inventory, although most producers are hesitant to build too much of an inventory at current price levels. Buttermilk powder markets are generally firm with prices steady to generally higher. Powder production is often being curtailed by declining intakes and seasonally declining butter production as plants sell cream to Class II end users. Demand is fair for available buttermilk offerings and some buyers are able and willing to secure additional loads when offered. Unsold offerings are being held with confidence for future contractual or spot needs. The whey powder market tone is mixed as prices are steady to higher and lower across the country. Whey powder production is active, but trending lower seasonally. Also, some milk in various areas of the country is being diverted away from cheese production towards butter and powder. June milk supply and demand estimates (World Dairy Outlook Board) Strong demand for dairy products and limited ability to adjust production in the short term has resulted in significantly higher price forecasts this month. Milk production forecasts for both 2007 and 2008 are raised from last month, but relatively high feed costs are expected to limit growth into 2008. Cow numbers are forecasted to be higher, with the cow herd in 2007 averaging about the same as 2006 and expanding in 2008. Output per cow is forecast to continue to increase modestly in both 2007 and 2008. However, in the face of continued strong demand for dairy products and expected tightness in international supplies, most product prices for 2007 and 2008 are forecasted to be higher. Forecast nonfat dry milk prices are increased significantly, which coupled with higher forecast butter prices, support a stronger Class IV price forecast. Although cheese prices are also forecast higher, a reduced forecast for whey prices limits the increase in the Class III price forecast for both 2007 and 2008. With strong class prices, the forecast for an all-milk price is also raised. In 2007, the all-milk price is forecast to average a record $18.55 to $18.95 and then decline to $17.90 to $18.90 in 2008. PD
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